Free Chain Risk Estimator
Count the links in your property chain. The tool returns the historical probability the chain completes, the typical delay each link adds, and the actions that genuinely reduce fall-through risk. Methodology is explicit, below the result.
Count every property, including yours. A first-time buyer purchasing from someone who is downsizing into cash is a 2-link chain.
Verdict
Average chain, moderate risk
Probability the chain completes
73%
Fall-through probability: 27%
Expected time to completion
12 weeks
Worst-case (90th percentile): 20 weeks
Actions for a 3-link chain
- 1Get every party to instruct their solicitor in the first 5 working days.
- 2Ask each solicitor for a weekly status email so delays surface immediately.
- 3Order searches the day your solicitor is instructed (local, drainage, environmental).
- 4Survey within 2 weeks of offer acceptance.
Methodology
The probability model treats each link in the chain as an independent point of failure. The per-link failure rate is set to 10%, calibrated against the well-quoted 33% UK residential fall-through rate at the historical average chain length of ~3.5 links. Sources: HMRC Property Transactions stats, Rightmove fall-through analysis, multiple Quick Move Now annual reports.
For a chain of length n, completion probability is (1 - 0.1)^n, fall-through probability is 1 - 0.9^n.
The duration model assumes a base of 8 weeks from offer to completion (single-link, mortgage purchase, no complications) and adds 2 weeks per additional link to account for slower searches, mortgage offers, and the cumulative effect of multiple solicitors waiting on each other. The 90th-percentile worst case is 1.7x the expected time.
The model assumes a typical UK transaction. Probate sales, divorce sales, leasehold complications, foreign buyers, and gifted-deposit cases each add to the failure rate; the tool currently treats those as additional risk on top of the chain length, not modelled in the headline number.
What this tool tells you
- Historical completion probability for your chain length, calibrated against UK fall-through stats.
- Expected and worst-case time to completion, so you can plan rental contingency or mortgage offer windows.
- Specific mitigation actions calibrated to your chain length: more aggressive coordination at longer lengths, simpler steps for shorter chains.
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